Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Taiwan polls: Whither independence?
By Sheng Lijun, For The Straits Times
TOUCHY TOPIC: A protester demonstrating against a referendum on the DPP's proposal to join the UN under the name 'Taiwan'. The referendum will be held together with the presidential poll.
TAIWAN'S election has once again gained worldwide attention. But does it matter?
If Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou wins, Taiwan will not get too close to China, otherwise the pan-blue alliance would likely lose the next election.
If the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) Frank Hsieh wins, Taiwan's independence will also wane.
Taiwan's independence depends less on how well it does or who wins the presidential election, but more on how badly China does. Should China eventually develop into a strong continental civilisation, Taiwan's independence will be only a daydream, whatever it does.
Taiwan could have followed Hong Kong in going along with China's rise. Should China continue to rise, Taiwan would continue to benefit massively. But if China should fail badly, Taiwan would have its independence, hands down, without so much turmoil as it is experiencing now.
Because of either pride or misjudgment - or both - Taiwan has chosen a difficult path. It has proven to be a bumpy road, resulting in broken dreams, missed opportunities, a limping economy and a battered bureaucracy. Taiwanese society is becoming ever more ideologically fragmented, emotionally torn and politically intolerant - a miniature 'Cultural Revolution' in the making.
Taiwan's independence depends less on how well it does or who wins the presidential election, but more on how badly China does. Should China eventually develop into a strong continental civilisation, Taiwan's independence will be only a daydream, whatever it does. Yet, Taiwan matters. It matters less in itself than how it can trigger an unforeseen chain reaction involving China and the United States. It can drag them, together with many other countries, down the road towards violent confrontation.
We remember that Taiwan once came out with a highly provocative 'two-state theory' precisely at a time when relations between China and the US were deteriorating following the US bombing of China's embassy in Belgrade and the consequent emotional Chinese demonstrations against the US.
The timing made people suspect that Taiwan might be intent on inciting a China-US military confrontation, since without such a confrontation the prospect of its independence is built on shifting sand.
To put it bluntly, while many countries would worry about a US-China military showdown, Taiwanese independence advocates may not share this worry.
This makes most countries stay away from supporting full-fledged independence for Taiwan. The only chance of Taiwanese independence coming to pass lies in not merely a weakened but a broken China. (We still remember Mr Lee Teng-hui's once expressed the desire to see China divided into seven pieces.)
Many in the Asia-Pacific hope to benefit from China's rise. Even those who hope to see a weak China do not necessarily want to see China collapse so violently as to break into several pieces.
This is why Taiwan independence advocates find it so hard to get support from many countries. It is not so much because China is too strong but rather because these countries have a vision of what a future China might look like. This is partly why Taipei's relations with Washington have been strained in recent years and why it has been left out of the fast-developing regional integration of East Asia.
Whatever changes Taiwan might make following this Saturday's election would not matter too much to the region. The only thing that would matter is if Taiwan challenges the current regional power structure. The region would ask a simple question: Would such a challenge benefit the region or be at its expense?
China does care about who wins the election. But it cares more about the unforeseen 'chain reaction' that Taipei's actions might instigate. Just as the Belgrade bombing gave Taiwan the opportunity to spring its 'two-state' theory, the Beijing Olympic Games provides it with another such opportunity. President Chen Shui-bian still keeps Beijing guessing as to what 'surprise gift' he has in store for the Games.
Since early this year, Beijing has been adopting a 'soft approach' towards Taipei. This should not be cause for relief in Taiwan. Instead, it should be cause for worry.
There are two major reasons for Beijing's soft approach: to avoid playing into the hands of the DPP during the election and disadvantaging the pan-blue alliance; and to place the ball squarely in Taipei's court.
If China were to take strong action against Taiwan later on - should it give Beijing a provocative surprise during the Olympics, say - China would have more international understanding and sympathy.
Together with the soft approach, Beijing has also shown its 'hard approach'. It has brought unprecedented diplomatic pressure on the US, Japan and other countries on the issue of Taiwan's UN referendum.
Beijing is clearly preparing the ground against the unpredictable Mr Chen. So long as it can ensure that there will be no unfavourable international chain reaction, whatever surprise Mr Chen has in store for the Olympics would be of little concern to Beijing.
A careful reading of the trajectory of China's Taiwan policy tells us that this policy does not consist solely of damage-control. It also aims to benefit from Taiwan, to turn it from a strategic liability into a strategic asset.
Taiwanese businessmen bring to China not only funds but also the latest Western technology. This is of immense help as China upgrades its industry and moves up the value-add chain. This approach carries profound strategic implications for China, for Taiwan eventually, Japan and even the US.
China also skilfully uses the Taiwan issue to boost the modernisation of its armed forces, the People's Liberation Army. This, if well managed, will not exhaust China. On the contrary, it can bring about faster economic modernisation, for breakthroughs in military technologies can be converted quickly for civilian use.
Throughout history, important technological breakthroughs have often been generated for security purposes before being converted for civilian use to generate economic benefits. Examples of this conversion include the radar, computers and the Internet.
This is another example of how Taiwan matters to China - but in an unexpected, even funny, way.
The writer is a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, NUS.
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China, US to push on with nuclear, security talks
'We also had an in-depth exchange of each other's views of Asian security issues - that will lay the basis for us continuing that kind of discussion that we both agree is very important,' said Mr Sedney. -- PHOTO: AFP
SHANGHAI - CHINA and the United States have agreed to deepen a dialogue on nuclear and Asian security issues following the end of high-level talks in Beijing this week, the US defence department said on Saturday.
The discussions were part of ongoing Sino-US defence consultations aimed at increasing mutual understanding and avoiding miscalculation between the two powers, said David Sedney, deputy assistant secretary of defence for East Asia.
'We had very positive discussions on that (nuclear strategy and policy) and we expect to be moving forward with that dialogue very shortly,' Mr Sedney said at a press briefing in Shanghai.
'We also had an in-depth exchange of each other's views of Asian security issues - that will lay the basis for us continuing that kind of discussion that we both agree is very important.'
The talks were followed by a signing on Friday of two agreements announced earlier this week between the countries.
The first gives Washington access to Beijing's military archives to search for missing servicemen from conflicts since World War II.
The other was an agreement to establish a telephone hotline between the two armies, which is expected to be operational in about a month, Mr Sedney said.
The military hotline was first suggested by the United States in 2003, and US President George W. Bush reached agreement on the link when meeting his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao at a regional forum in Sydney in September.
The two nations discussed the issue further in November last year when US Defence Secretary Robert Gates visited Beijing.
US and Chinese heads of state have been able to communicate over a similar line since the late 1990s but the new hotline will be China's first direct military telephone link with another country.
Reduce misunderstandingsMr Sedney said it aims to reduce misunderstandings between the two militaries, although its effectiveness and exact use was still to be determined.
'In terms of specifically how we use it, for what issues and at what time is something we will have to develop with the Chinese. The purpose is to address emergency, crisis or important issues that need immediate communication,' said Mr Sedney, adding that the line would have come useful amid tensions between Beijing and Washington last year.
Sino-US relations remain tetchy despite warming dramatically since spiralling to a low in 2001 when Chinese jet fighters collided with a US Navy surveillance plane forcing it to land on Chinese soil.
The US Pentagon remains irked by a Chinese military build-up that it believes is aimed at thwarting American intervention in a conflict over Taiwan, and ultimately challenging its access to the region.
US suspicions intensified in January last year after a Chinese anti-satellite test in which a ballistic missile was used to destroy a Chinese weather satellite in low Earth orbit.
And in a flare-up in November, Beijing denied US warships port entry in Hong Kong, a decision that Mr Sedney said the Chinese have never adequately explained.
Meanwhile, China called on the US earlier this month to provide more information about its shooting down of a defunct US spy satellite, amid concerns about space security. -- AFP
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Beijing Olympic organisers say athletes to follow IOC's rules
Human rights groups eager to use the Olympic Games to raise awareness of China's human rights record, free speech restrictions, and support for Sudan's government that stands accused of backing atrocities in Darfur. -- PHOTO: REUTERS
BEIJING Olympic organisers said Tuesday all athletes should follow International Olympic Committee rules governing political and religious activity, but would not comment on accusations that Britain had sought to gag its athletes at this summer's Games.
On Sunday, the British Olympic Association said it would require its athletes to sign a new clause in their contracts barring them from making politically sensitive remarks or gestures during the Olympics.
Following an outcry, the association's spokesman Graham Newsom said on Monday there had been 'no intention of gagging anyone' but admitted that its Team Members' Agreement appeared to go beyond the provision of the Olympic Charter.
Reached by phone on Tuesday, Beijing organising committee spokesman Sun Weide did not respond to questions about the British controversy.
'We welcome athletes from all over the world to come to Beijing for the Olympics, and we also hope they will follow the Olympic spirit and the IOC's rules,' Mr Sun said.
The British Olympic Association has instructed athletes headed for Beijing that they should abide by IOC-backed regulations that state they should not comment on any politically sensitive issues or take part in political, religious or racial propaganda at the Olympic sites and venues.
British Olympic officials said the instructions had been in affect for at least 20 years and that they were sent to athletes who had not seen them before because they would be competing at the Olympics for the first time.
Nevertheless, the British group's move drew strong criticism from human rights groups eager to use the Games to raise awareness of China's human rights record, free speech restrictions, and support for Sudan's government that stands accused of backing atrocities in Darfur.
'This affair is indicative of the lack of courage that characterizes some officials in the Olympic movement nowadays,' Paris-based Reporters Without Borders and anti-censorship group Article 19, headquartered in London, said in a statement.
'Such behaviour ends up making the Chinese authorities look like victims with whom one has to choose (one's) words carefully. This is back to front. The victims are the thousands of political prisoners and the 100 or so journalists, Internet users and bloggers who are in prison solely for expressing their views peacefully,' the groups said.
Newsom said the British Olympic Association had not tried to put any block on free speech and had been under no political pressure from Beijing.
In January, Belgian athletes were told they would be prohibited from raising human rights or other political issues at Olympic venues. Outside the sports venues and Olympic village, however, they will be free to speak their mind.
Separately on Tuesday, Darfur activists highlighted the Olympics in an open letter to Chinese President Hu Jintao condemning Beijing's support for Khartoum.
'As the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games approach, we will continue to call on the Chinese government for action,' said the letter, signed by eight Nobel Peace Prize laureates, 13 Olympic athletes and 46 parliamentarians, along with celebrities including actress Mia Farrow and hip-hop mogul Russell Simmons.
'We are aware of the tremendous potential for China to help bring an end to the conflict in Darfur,' the activists said in the letter, which criticised Beijing's support for Sudan at the United Nations and said China's robust trade with the country was underwriting abuses in Darfur. -- AP
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China, Japan vow to solve sea dispute: report
BEIJING - CHINA and Japan have pledged to work towards settling a long-standing row over the gas-rich East China Sea after two days of high-level talks here, state media reported.
Japanese Vice-Foreign Minister Mitoji Yabunaka and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi led discussions during the most recent round of the bilateral 'strategic dialogue,' the Xinhua news agency said late on Saturday.
Both sides 'should continue to make efforts in accordance with the consensus reached by the leaders of both countries, to strive for the early proper settlement of the issue', Xinhua quoted the Chinese foreign ministry as saying.
Japan and China, two of the world's largest energy importers, have failed in a dozen rounds of talks since 2004 to agree on how to share lucrative gas resources in the East China Sea.
China started drilling in 2003 and Japan has charged that Beijing may be siphoning off what it considers its own gas reserves.
During a visit to China in December, Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed to seek a resolution on the gas dispute at an early date, although no major breakthrough has yet been made.
Mr Hu is expected to visit Japan in the next few months.
'President Hu Jintao's visit to Japan this year will be a historic visit that will carry on the past and open a way for the future,' the Chinese foreign ministry said, according to Xinhua.
'The two sides are ready to strengthen cooperation to ensure the complete success of the visit,' it said.
The delegates had also been widely expected to discuss a recent food scare in Japan involving toxic dumplings imported from China.
However, Xinhua made no mention of the issue in its reports on the two days of talks in Beijing.
China and Japan have launched a joint investigation into the dumpling scare that so far has resulted in 10 Japanese consumers being poisoned by pesticides after eating tainted dumplings imported from China.
Mr Hu dispatched his top envoy Tang Jiaxuan to Tokyo to address the issue and last week expressed sympathy to the Japanese people who fell ill. -- AFP
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PM Wen issues warning to Taiwan
Island cannot decide its political future unilaterally, he says at opening of parliament
BEIJING - CHINESE Premier Wen Jiabao told Taiwan yesterday it cannot unilaterally decide its political future as the island prepares to hold a contentious referendum on whether to seek UN membership.
Taiwan, which China claims as its own, is to hold the referendum alongside presidential polls on March 22, ignoring warnings from China and the United States. Washington is concerned about instability across the Taiwan Strait.
The referendum has riled Beijing because it calls for the island to join the United Nations under the name 'Taiwan' instead of its official title 'Republic of China'. The latter connotes fealty to Beijing's 'one China' principle.
'Any issue that concerns China's sovereignty and territorial integrity must be decided by all the Chinese people, including our Taiwan compatriots,' Premier Wen told the opening of the annual session of parliament yesterday.
He said Taiwan's pro-independence activities were 'doomed to fail' - a remark echoing President Hu Jintao's warning just a day ago.
On Tuesday, Mr Hu told China's top political advisory body that 'Taiwan independence' activities 'will get nowhere and are doomed to fail'.
But like Mr Hu, Mr Wen also extended Taiwan an olive branch, renewing an offer to enter into negotiations. 'We will work for the early resumption of cross-strait negotiations on the basis of the 'one China' principle,' Mr Wen said.
However, the 'one China' principle, which says Taiwan and the mainland are part of a single sovereign country, has long been rejected by Taiwan as an unfair precondition.
An official with Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party dismissed Mr Wen's remarks.
'Mr Wen's comments are not different from years past, but they've hardened their position, especially when they say Taiwan can't decide its future for itself,' said Mr Lai I-chung, the party's deputy international affairs director.
Yesterday, Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian said he is agreeable to separating the referendum from the presidential poll, but on condition that the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) agrees to amend the referendum Act to lower the high threshold required to make it legally binding.
A referendum is only successful if more than half of Taiwan's 16.8 million eligible voters cast ballots, and more than 50 per cent of the votes support the initiative. And the KMT is unlikely to agree to a change.
REUTERS
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