Uncertainties over China's intentions behind its rapidly rising defense spending — or how it will use the new capabilities — are seen as a source of potential instability in Asia. Participants at the Jan. 23 symposium discussed whether this will cause a "security dilemma" in the region and how China's neighbors have responded so far.

M. Taylor Fravel

Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki

Akihiko Tanaka

M. Taylor Fravel, an assistant MIT professor of political science, said China's military objectives can be divided into five categories — regime security, territorial integrity, unification with Taiwan, regional stability and maritime security.

The People's Liberation Army is "not a national army" but a "party army," one of whose major functions is to maintain the Communist Party's monopoly on power, he said. Regional security is the key to its future growth as the economy integrates with the global supply chain and becomes intertwined with its neighbors, while maritime security is essential to the protection of China's wealthy coastal regions, he added.

One of the capabilities that China needs to achieve these objectives is "internal control" within the country through such measures as deployment of troops near key population centers and creation of a paramilitary force, Fravel said.

Territorial integrity, national unification and regional stability call for an "area denial" capability along China's periphery — or the ability to hinder an adversary's use of space or facilities — as well as limited regional force projection — or the ability to sustain and deploy forces from China's borders, he added.

Fravel noted that people are worried about China's defense spending because they are unsure what kind of power it will be in the future. "We have a general idea of the capabilities that China would like to acquire, but no sense yet on how they will be used," he said.

A key question is whether this might create a "security dilemma" in East Asia, he noted.

"If one state seeks to improve its ability to defend itself, it often makes other states nervous (because the effort) often appears offensive and threatening," he said. "China views the development of its maritime denial capability in defensive terms — in defending its claim over Taiwan and defending its sea lanes of communication. How do other navies in the region feel when Chinese surface task forces routinely patrol the East China Sea, South China Sea and other areas? They will most likely not be viewed as defensive, but threatening and offensive."

Akihiko Tanaka, a University of Tokyo professor of international politics, said a lack of transparency in China's decision-making in military-related affairs might contribute to this security dilemma.

China's military-related decisions are made by the Central Military Committee, where the only civilian member is President Hu Jintao, Tanaka said. "I'm not sure if Mr. Hu is fully briefed about the military's decisions," he said as he cited Chinese behavior in recent incidents such as its refusal of a port call by the U.S. carrier Kitty Hawk, the antisatellite missile test as well as intrusions of Chinese submarines into Japanese waters.

"This opaqueness could increase the possibility of a spiraling of the security dilemma. You are drawn into the security dilemma partly because you're uncertain about the other's thought pattens," he noted.

Japan and South Korea have so far not engaged in overt balancing against the growing Chinese military capability — partly to avoid this dilemma and also because they hope to constructively engage China, said Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki, an associate professor at Waseda University's Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies.

But Ueki expressed concern that there has been very little coordination between Japan and South Korea as they responded differently to the rise of China. "Coordination is key to stability in the region," and coordination among Japan, South Korea and their mutual ally, the U.S., "does not mean containing China," she said.

One source of Japan's concern is China's power projection capabilities, Ueki noted. The 1,500-km range of its Sukhoi 27 fighter jets can possibly challenge Japan's air superiority over its offshore islands while Chinese missiles targeted at Taiwan also cover Okinawa, she said.

Ueki said that while few Japanese are worried about an outright attack by China, there is an "unease and concern that the growing military capability might lead to China's increasing political leverage" in the region.

Since the mid-to-late 1990s, Japan has strenghtened its alliance with the U.S. — and has taken part in the U.S.-led global war on terror — partly as a hedge against a potentially aggressive China, she noted.

Japan has also acquired "dual-use" defense capabilities, Ueki said. The reconnaissance satellite and the joint missile defense program with the U.S. is primarily targeted against the threat of North Korean missiles but "can also be used for China," she said.

South Korea is similarly concerned with an increase in China's political leverage due to its greater military capability, but is also worried about an entanglement in a possible U.S.-China conflict, and rivalry between China and Japan, Ueki pointed out.

A 2005 "Balancer of Northeast Asia Initiative" says that South Korea will try to seek a "balancer" role between Japan and China, and a mediator to improve China's relations with Japan and the U.S., she said. Such a position may be based on South Korea's fear of entrapment deriving from its history of frequent invasion by its neighbors, but it may also be unique to the outgoing President Roh Moo Hyun and may change under the incoming administration of Lee Myung Bank, she added.

BRUSSELS — Ever since Deng Xiaoping's aphorism "Black cat, white cat, who cares as long as it can catch mice" was burned into Chinese souls by the successive horrors of the Great Leap Forward, its resulting famine and the Cultural Revolution's shambolic savagery, China has seen 10 percent-plus growth rates for three decades.

While China's population has grown by a third, its economy has grown 13 times, meaning that per-capita GDP is up by a factor of 10. The consequence is a cascade of goods from China flooding global markets, gifting enormous gains to Europeans as consumers while menacing their role as producers.

The overall balance of interests is misrepresented by the asymmetrical response. Jobs lost trigger demonstrations and demands for quotas, bans and retaliation, while no one marches to celebrate dramatically cheaper goods in the shops and the extra jobs created by the new spending inspired by these savings.

The myth is that Chinese manufacturing is low cost. Compared to Europe, it may be, but compared to the competition, it is certainly not. China marries lower pay with technology — not yet the best — to beat the competition on productivity rather than on wages. The average salary in 2006 at Shanghai's Three Gun textile and clothing company was £2,700 (1,850 euro), roughly what my father, a skilled toolmaker, earned in the 1970s in Gloucestershire.

China faces enormous problems that Hu Jintao and the leadership of the Communist Party (CCP) must tackle at the 17th National Congress later this year, but these are problems of economic success, not failure.

They are threefold, internal immigration, corruption and pollution. Today China is two countries inside one nation. Hundreds of millions in the predominately urban east have a better standard of living than the inhabitants of the two newest EU member-states, Romania and Bulgaria, after taking into account comparative purchasing power. Yet, parts of the rural west are worse than sub-Saharan Africa. The result is an immense migration. More than 100 million peasants have flooded into the cities looking to escape grinding rural poverty and seek a better life.

This is placing enormous pressure on the urban infrastructure, with overcrowding, soaring property prices and migrants outside the safety net of the state in terms of health, education and workplace protection, and leading to increasing unrest throughout China with thousands of civil disturbances occurring as people refuse to bear the unbearable anymore in fields, factories and workshops.

The 17th National Congress will have a twin-track strategy:

* Shifting resources from urban to rural areas to try to narrow the yawning income gap that makes internal migration so compelling, improving social conditions, reducing/removing education fees and abolishing agricultural taxes. Putting a television in every village was not entirely a success as it provided visual confirmation of a better life elsewhere.

* Providing basic education and welfare for the children of migrant workers in the cities. The result may slow slightly China's breakneck growth, but it will be a price worth paying if it improves social cohesion. At the same time, Beijing will strengthen the rule of law, albeit with a Draconian stamp.

China's booming economy is also inciting corruption among the cadres. The boom in real estate, massive foreign direct investment, privatization and company restructuring mean those at the top of the party in places like Shanghai, with a maximum income of 700 euro month, are making decisions worth billions. The consequence is that Qiu Xiaolong's fictional Inspector Chen has now spent four novels rooting out graft in Shanghai, while in real life dark clouds hang over parts of the administration. The selfless dedication of the past is fast eroding as the last of the revolutionary generation pass away.

The only control over the "red princes and princesses," the second and third generation children of the revolution, is the threat of ruthless punishment. The recent execution of Zheng Xiaoyu, the ex-head of the State Food and Drug Administration, for colluding in the production of counterfeit medicines that may have killed hundreds is one recent example. A similar fate is likely to befall those recently arrested in Henan and Shanxi provinces for employing slave labor.

Under current circumstances, while China is narrowing the range of offenses for which the death penalty applies and now requires final authorization from the Supreme People's Court before execution, the death penalty is more likely to be abolished for murder than economic crime.

The problem is that this is only a short-term stopgap. When top cadres can increase their salaries 50 times by moving into the private sector in the future, only the most mediocre will view promotion to top party positions as anything but a way station to wealth.

As for the environment, it's a classic case of "where there's muck there's brass." Industry and pollution have risen as one. China's cities are blanketed in acrid smog, searing throats and burning eyes, while the rivers resemble more chemical drains than flowing water. Mao's swim in the Yangtze couldn't happen today, while track events at next year's Beijing Olympics are not expected to yield too many world records with the poisonous atmosphere choking lungs.

Even so, those eager for China to fail may be disappointed. Hu Jintao and the CCP seem determined to act and start redressing the gap between city and country. This will be easier to do when the cost to the conurbations are slower growth rather than diverted resources.

As for corruption and pollution, Beijing could learn from Tokyo. In Japan public penury and private wealth are overcome by bureaucrats parachuting into the private sector after age 50 en route to retirement.

In the '60s and '70s Japan was as dirty and diseased as China is today. It was public pressure and technological change, as the best replaced the rest, that saw Japan's cities bloom with street monitors providing a public record of pollution. With each passing year the numbers tumbled and tumbled until the displays were endless lines of zeros. They then disappeared as quickly as they came.

BEIJING - China has called on the United States and Japan to keep their word on the Taiwan issue.

"China hopes the United States and Japan will carry out their promises of not supporting 'Taiwan independence' or Taiwan authority's proposed 'referendum on UN membership'", Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said in a written interview with Russia's Interfax news agency.

Yang made the remarks in response to a question on the influence of Taiwan issue on Sino-US and Sino-Japanese relations.

Yang told the Russian journalist that Taiwan issue is one that matters the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of China and a great concern of 1.3 billion Chinese people and tens of millions of overseas Chinese.

Taiwan issue has always been the most important and sensitive one in the relations between China and United States.

Addressing the issue based on the one-China policy is pivotal to the healthy and stable development of mutual ties, he said.

The issue is also significant in China-Japan relations, Yang added. To handle the issue properly is a fundamental condition for the smooth development of China-Japan relations.

Yang said that the situation across the Taiwan Straits now is "highly complex and sensitive" and that Chen Shui-bian clings obstinately to secessionist activities, including the "referendum on UN membership". This poses a serious threat to peace and stability in the region, he said.

Yang said that the United States and Japan had already said many times they support the one-China policy and oppose "Taiwan independence" and the proposed "referendum on the UN membership".

In a reply to the questions on linking issues like human rights to the Beijing Olympics, Yang said China welcomes constructive advices and criticism, but objects to intervention in its internal affairs and intervening the Beijing Olympics with political purposes.

"(The linkage) violates the common aspiration of the international community and the Olympic spirit", Yang said, adding it would be unfair to China and unfair to the Olympics and all people who share their passions for sports, Yang said.

Yang said the upcoming Beijing Olympics is a world event and it is the common expectation of the people around the world to see the Beijing Olympics success.

Yang said that China hopes the international community to take a responsible attitude toward the event, and China believes the Beijing Olympics will be a successful event with the support and participation of various nations.